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An empirical method to forecast the effect of storm intensity on shallow landslide abundance

Italian Journal of Engineering Geology and Environment
By:  and 
https://doi.org/10.4408/IJEGE.2011-03.B-110

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Abstract

We hypothesize that the number of shallow landslides a storm triggers in a landscape increases with rainfall intensity, duration and the number of unstable model cells for a given shallow landslide susceptibility model of that landscape. For selected areas in California, USA, we use digital maps of historic shallow landslides with adjacent rainfall records to construct a relation between rainfall intensity and the fraction of unstable model cells that actually failed in historic storms. We find that this fraction increases as a power law with the 6-hour rainfall intensity for sites in southern California. We use this relation to forecast shallow landslide abundance for a dynamic numerical simulation storm for California, representing the most extreme historic storms known to have impacted the state.

Suggested Citation

Stock, J.D., Bellugi, D., 2011, An empirical method to forecast the effect of storm intensity on shallow landslide abundance: Italian Journal of Engineering Geology and Environment, p. 1013-1022, https://doi.org/10.4408/IJEGE.2011-03.B-110.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title An empirical method to forecast the effect of storm intensity on shallow landslide abundance
Series title Italian Journal of Engineering Geology and Environment
DOI 10.4408/IJEGE.2011-03.B-110
Year Published 2011
Language English
Publisher Sapienza Università di Roma
Contributing office(s) Geology and Geophysics Science Center
Description 10 p.
First page 1013
Last page 1022
Conference Title 5th International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment
Conference Location Padua, Italy
Conference Date June 14-17, 2011
Country United States
State California
Additional publication details