Predicting the planform configuration of the braided Toklat River, AK with a suite of rule-based models
Journal of the American Water Resources Association
By: Charles J. Podolak
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Abstract
An ensemble of rule-based models was constructed to assess possible future braided river planform configurations for the Toklat River in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. This approach combined an analysis of large-scale influences on stability with several reduced-complexity models to produce the predictions at a practical level for managers concerned about the persistence of bank erosion while acknowledging the great uncertainty in any landscape prediction. First, a model of confluence angles reproduced observed angles of a major confluence, but showed limited susceptibility to a major rearrangement of the channel planform downstream. Second, a probabilistic map of channel locations was created with a two-parameter channel avulsion model. The predicted channel belt location was concentrated in the same area as the current channel belt. Finally, a suite of valley-scale channel and braid plain characteristics were extracted from a light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived surface. The characteristics demonstrated large-scale stabilizing topographic influences on channel planform. The combination of independent analyses increased confidence in the conclusion that the Toklat River braided planform is a dynamically stable system due to large and persistent valley-scale influences, and that a range of avulsive perturbations are likely to result in a relatively unchanged planform configuration in the short term.
Suggested Citation
Podolak, C.J., 2013, Predicting the planform configuration of the braided Toklat River, AK with a suite of rule-based models: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v. 49, no. 2, p. 390-401, https://doi.org/10.1111/jawr.12029.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Predicting the planform configuration of the braided Toklat River, AK with a suite of rule-based models |
| Series title | Journal of the American Water Resources Association |
| DOI | 10.1111/jawr.12029 |
| Volume | 49 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Publication Date | January 28, 2013 |
| Year Published | 2013 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Wiley |
| Contributing office(s) | Alaska Science Center Water |
| Description | 12 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Journal of the American Water Resources Association |
| First page | 390 |
| Last page | 401 |
| Country | United States |
| State | Alaska |
| Other Geospatial | Toklat River |