Experimental and environmental factors affect spurious detection of ecological thresholds
Ecology
Links
- More information: Publisher Index Page (via DOI)
- Open Access Version: Publisher Index Page
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
Threshold detection methods are increasingly popular for assessing nonlinear responses to environmental change, but their statistical performance remains poorly understood. We simulated linear change in stream benthic macroinvertebrate communities and evaluated the performance of commonly used threshold detection methods based on model fitting (piecewise quantile regression [PQR]), data partitioning (nonparametric change point analysis [NCPA]), and a hybrid approach (significant zero crossings [SiZer]). We demonstrated that false detection of ecological thresholds (type I errors) and inferences on threshold locations are influenced by sample size, rate of linear change, and frequency of observations across the environmental gradient (i.e., sample-environment distribution, SED). However, the relative importance of these factors varied among statistical methods and between inference types. False detection rates were influenced primarily by user-selected parameters for PQR (τ) and SiZer (bandwidth) and secondarily by sample size (for PQR) and SED (for SiZer). In contrast, the location of reported thresholds was influenced primarily by SED. Bootstrapped confidence intervals for NCPA threshold locations revealed strong correspondence to SED. We conclude that the choice of statistical methods for threshold detection should be matched to experimental and environmental constraints to minimize false detection rates and avoid spurious inferences regarding threshold location.
Suggested Citation
Daily, J., Hitt, N.P., Smith, D., and Snyder, C.D., 2012, Experimental and environmental factors affect spurious detection of ecological thresholds: Ecology, v. 93, no. 1, p. 17-23, https://doi.org/10.1890/11-0516.1.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Experimental and environmental factors affect spurious detection of ecological thresholds |
| Series title | Ecology |
| DOI | 10.1890/11-0516.1 |
| Volume | 93 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Year Published | 2012 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | ESA (Ecological Society of America) |
| Publisher location | Ithaca, NY |
| Contributing office(s) | Leetown Science Center |
| Description | 7 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Ecology |
| First page | 17 |
| Last page | 23 |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |