The Greenville Fault: preliminary estimates of its long-term creep rate and seismic potential
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Links
- More information: Publisher Index Page (via DOI)
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
Once assumed locked, we show that the northern third of the Greenville fault (GF) creeps at 2 mm/yr, based on 47 yr of trilateration net data. This northern GF creep rate equals its 11-ka slip rate, suggesting a low strain accumulation rate. In 1980, the GF, easternmost strand of the San Andreas fault system east of San Francisco Bay, produced a Mw5.8 earthquake with a 6-km surface rupture and dextral slip growing to ≥2 cm on cracks over a few weeks. Trilateration shows a 10-cm post-1980 transient slip ending in 1984. Analysis of 2000-2012 crustal velocities on continuous global positioning system stations, allows creep rates of ~2 mm/yr on the northern GF, 0-1 mm/yr on the central GF, and ~0 mm/yr on its southern third. Modeled depth ranges of creep along the GF allow 5-25% aseismic release. Greater locking in the southern two thirds of the GF is consistent with paleoseismic evidence there for large late Holocene ruptures. Because the GF lacks large (>1 km) discontinuities likely to arrest higher (~1 m) slip ruptures, we expect full-length (54-km) ruptures to occur that include the northern creeping zone. We estimate sufficient strain accumulation on the entire GF to produce Mw6.9 earthquakes with a mean recurrence of ~575 yr. While the creeping 16-km northern part has the potential to produce a Mw6.2 event in 240 yr, it may rupture in both moderate (1980) and large events. These two-dimensional-model estimates of creep rate along the southern GF need verification with small aperture surveys.
Suggested Citation
Lienkaemper, J.J., Barry, R., Smith, F.E., Mello, J.D., McFarland, F., 2013, The Greenville Fault: preliminary estimates of its long-term creep rate and seismic potential: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 103, no. 5, p. 2729-2738, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120169.
ISSN: 1943-3573 (online)
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | The Greenville Fault: preliminary estimates of its long-term creep rate and seismic potential |
| Series title | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
| DOI | 10.1785/0120120169 |
| Volume | 103 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Publication Date | September 30, 2013 |
| Year Published | 2013 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Seismological Society of America |
| Description | 10 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
| First page | 2729 |
| Last page | 2738 |
| Country | United States |
| State | California |