Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model

American Journal of Climate Change
By: , and 



Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model
Series title American Journal of Climate Change
DOI 10.4236/ajcc.2014.31004
Volume 3
Issue 1
Year Published 2014
Language English
Publisher Scientific Research Publishing Inc.
Publisher location Irvine, CA
Contributing office(s) Florida Water Science Center
Description 17 p.
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
Larger Work Title American Journal of Climate Change
First page 33
Last page 49
Country United States
State Florida
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