Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach
Land
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Abstract
Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km2) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and development near existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identify ecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity to existing protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the Coast Range, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades had very high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly 40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades (i.e., two highest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future land use helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regional land-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts.
Suggested Citation
Wilson, T.S., Sleeter, B.M., Sleeter, R., and Soulard, C.E., 2014, Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach: Land, v. 3, no. 2, p. 362-389, https://doi.org/10.3390/land3020362.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach |
| Series title | Land |
| DOI | 10.3390/land3020362 |
| Volume | 3 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Publication Date | April 08, 2014 |
| Year Published | 2014 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | MDPI |
| Publisher location | Basel, Switzerland |
| Contributing office(s) | Western Geographic Science Center |
| Description | 28 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Land |
| First page | 362 |
| Last page | 389 |
| Country | United States |
| Other Geospatial | Pacific Northwest |