The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.
PLoS ONE
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Abstract
The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S. |
| Series title | PLoS ONE |
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0102261 |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue | 7 |
| Year Published | 2014 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Public Library of Science |
| Publisher location | San Francisco, CA |
| Contributing office(s) | Southeast Climate Science Center, Core Science Analytics, Synthesis, and Libraries, GAP Analysis Project |
| Description | 8 p. |
| Country | United States |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |