Using climate data to predict grizzly bear litter size

Bears: Their Biology and Management
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Abstract

A 5-year double-bind test was conducted to test the predictive capability of a previously published (Picton 1978) regression (Y= 2.01 + 0.042x), which described the relationship between the littler size of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) and an index of climate plus carrion availability (climate-carrion index). This regression showed an efficient in excess of 99% in predicting the observed grizzly bear littler size. The predictions made using the climate-carrion index had a mean absolute error of less than 25% of forecasts using other methods. The updated climate-carrion index regression, which includes all of the 16 years for which data are available, is Y= 2.009 + 0.042x (r = 0.078; P < 0.01; N = 16). We concluded that the climate-carrion index can be a helpful tool in predicting grizzly bear littler size. The relation of this information to the effects of the closure of Yellowstone Park garbage dumps is discussed.
Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Using climate data to predict grizzly bear litter size
Series title Bears: Their Biology and Management
DOI 10.2307/3872804
Volume 6
Year Published 1986
Language English
Publisher International Association for Bear Research and Management
Publisher location New York, NY
Description 4 p.
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
Larger Work Title Bears: Their Biology and Management
First page 41
Last page 44
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