Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
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Abstract
The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M≥6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M≥6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the approximate nature of the model and known limitations, means the applicability of UCERF3 should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.
Publication type | Article |
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Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Title | Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) |
Series title | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
DOI | 10.1785/0120140093 |
Volume | 105 |
Issue | 2A |
Year Published | 2015 |
Language | English |
Publisher | Seismological Society of America |
Publisher location | Stanford, CA |
Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center |
Description | 33 p. |
First page | 511 |
Last page | 543 |
Online Only (Y/N) | N |
Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |
Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |