Towards forecasting the retreat of California’s coastal cliffs during the 21st century
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Abstract
In California, sea-level rise during the 21st century threatens to accelerate coastal cliff recession rates. To forecast such changes for managers and policymakers, models must play a key role. In this paper, we extend a ~70-year long dataset of measured historic sea cliff retreat rates in Southern California into the 21st century using a suite of simple analytical and empirical models. Ensemble results suggest that coastal cliff recession rates could increase on average by 0.09-0.22 m yr-1 for a 0.5-1.0 m rise in sea level by 2100, 27-67% faster than historical rates. The basic models used herein will serve as a baseline against which more complex, process-based and statistical (Bayesian) forecasts will be compared. The application of different models, with varying levels of detail, to the same geomorphic problem will provide a comprehensive forecast and address the question of how to reduce model complexity while minimizing uncertainty.
Suggested Citation
Limber, P.W., Barnard, P.L., Hapke, C., 2015, Towards forecasting the retreat of California’s coastal cliffs during the 21st century, in The proceedings of the coastal sediments 2015, San Diego, CA, May 11-15, 2015, 12 p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814689977_0245.
Study Area
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Towards forecasting the retreat of California’s coastal cliffs during the 21st century |
| DOI | 10.1142/9789814689977_0245 |
| Publication Date | April 15, 2015 |
| Year Published | 2015 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | World Scientific |
| Contributing office(s) | Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center |
| Description | 12 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Book |
| Larger Work Subtype | Conference publication |
| Larger Work Title | The proceedings of the coastal sediments 2015 |
| Conference Title | Coastal Sediments 2015 |
| Conference Location | San Diego, CA |
| Conference Date | May 11-15, 2015 |
| Country | United States |
| State | California |