Towards forecasting the retreat of California’s coastal cliffs during the 21st century

By: , and 

Links

Abstract

In California, sea-level rise during the 21st century threatens to accelerate coastal cliff recession rates. To forecast such changes for managers and policymakers, models must play a key role. In this paper, we extend a ~70-year long dataset of measured historic sea cliff retreat rates in Southern California into the 21st century using a suite of simple analytical and empirical models. Ensemble results suggest that coastal cliff recession rates could increase on average by 0.09-0.22 m yr-1 for a 0.5-1.0 m rise in sea level by 2100, 27-67% faster than historical rates. The basic models used herein will serve as a baseline against which more complex, process-based and statistical (Bayesian) forecasts will be compared. The application of different models, with varying levels of detail, to the same geomorphic problem will provide a comprehensive forecast and address the question of how to reduce model complexity while minimizing uncertainty.

Study Area

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Towards forecasting the retreat of California’s coastal cliffs during the 21st century
DOI 10.1142/9789814689977_0245
Year Published 2015
Language English
Publisher World Scientific
Contributing office(s) Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description 12 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Conference publication
Larger Work Title The proceedings of the coastal sediments 2015
Conference Title Coastal Sediments 2015
Conference Location San Diego, CA
Conference Date May 11-15, 2015
Country United States
State California
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details