Bayesian time series analysis of segments of the Rocky Mountain trumpeter swan population

Waterbirds
By: , and 

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Abstract

A Bayesian time series analysis technique, the dynamic linear model, was used to analyze counts of Trumpeter Swans (Cygnus buccinator) summering in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming from 1931 to 2000. For the Yellowstone National Park segment of white birds (sub-adults and adults combined) the estimated probability of a positive growth rate is 0.01. The estimated probability of achieving the Subcommittee on Rocky Mountain Trumpeter Swans 2002 population goal of 40 white birds for the Yellowstone segment is less than 0.01. Outside of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming white birds are estimated to have a 0.79 probability of a positive growth rate with a 0.05 probability of achieving the 2002 objective of 120 white birds. In the Centennial Valley in southwest Montana, results indicate a probability of 0.87 that the white bird population is growing at a positive rate with considerable uncertainty. The estimated probability of achieving the 2002 Centennial Valley objective of 160 white birds is 0.14 but under an alternative model falls to 0.04. The estimated probability that the Targhee National Forest segment of white birds has a positive growth rate is 0.03. In Idaho outside of the Targhee National Forest, white birds are estimated to have a 0.97 probability of a positive growth rate with a 0.18 probability of attaining the 2002 goal of 150 white birds.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Bayesian time series analysis of segments of the Rocky Mountain trumpeter swan population
Series title Waterbirds
Volume 25
Issue 1
Year Published 2002
Language English
Publisher Waterbird Society
Publisher location Washington, D.C.
Contributing office(s) Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
Description 8 p.
First page 319
Last page 326
Country United States
State Idaho, Montana, Wyoming
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
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