After an absence of 50 years, burrowing mayflies (Hexagenia spp.) colonized western Lake Erie which led to interest in whether this fauna can be used to measure recovery in nearshore waters throughout the Great Lakes. However, in many areas we do not know if mayflies were native/endemic and thus, whether recovery is a logical measure to assess progress of recovery. In the present study, we construct a chronologic record of relative abundance of burrowing mayflies in Saginaw Bay by the use of mayfly tusks and radionuclides in sediments (i.e., a paleoecologic record) and historic records of mayfly nymphs in the bay. These records reveal that mayflies: (1) were few before 1799, which indicates that nymphs were probably native/endemic in the bay, (2) increased between 1799 and 1807 and remained at relatively high levels between 1807 and 1965, probably in response to increased nutrient run-off from the watershed, (3) declined dramatically between 1965 and 1973, probably as a result of excessive eutrophication in the mid-1950s; and, (4) were few and highly variable between 1973 and 2001, probably as a result of low and unstable abundances of mayfly nymphs. Historic records verify that nymphs disappeared in the bay in the late-1950s to early-1960s which is in agreement with the paleoecologic record. Reoccurrence of low abundances of nymphs in the bay between 1991 and 2008 and comparison of chronologic records of nymphs in Saginaw Bay and western Lake Erie suggest that mayflies may return to Saginaw Bay in the early-21st century. Undoubtedly, watershed conservation and three decades of pollution abatement have set the stage for a recovery of burrowing mayflies in Saginaw Bay, and possibly in other areas of the Great Lakes.