Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models
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Abstract
Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models |
| Series title | Global Biogeochemical Cycles |
| DOI | 10.1002/2015GB005239 |
| Volume | 30 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Publication Date | January 21, 2016 |
| Year Published | 2016 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| Contributing office(s) | Coop Res Unit Seattle |
| Description | 17 p. |
| First page | 40 |
| Last page | 56 |
| Online Only (Y/N) | N |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |