Prospective earthquake forecasts at the Himalayan Front after the 25 April 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha Mainshock
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Abstract
When a major earthquake strikes, the resulting devastation can be compounded or even exceeded by the subsequent cascade of triggered seismicity. As the Nepalese recover from the 25 April 2015 shock, knowledge of what comes next is essential. We calculate the redistribution of crustal stresses and implied earthquake probabilities for different periods, from daily to 30 years into the future. An initial forecast was completed before an M 7.3 earthquake struck on 12 May 2015 that enables a preliminary assessment; postforecast seismicity has so far occurred within a zone of fivefold probability gain. Evaluation of the forecast performance, using two months of seismic data, reveals that stress‐based approaches present improved skill in higher‐magnitude triggered seismicity. Our results suggest that considering the total stress field, rather than only the coseismic one, improves the spatial performance of the model based on the estimation of a wide range of potential triggered faults following a mainshock.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Prospective earthquake forecasts at the Himalayan Front after the 25 April 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha Mainshock |
| Series title | Seismological Research Letters |
| DOI | 10.1785/0220150195 |
| Volume | 87 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Publication Date | June 08, 2016 |
| Year Published | 2016 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Seismological Society of America |
| Contributing office(s) | Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center |
| Description | 10 p. |
| First page | 816 |
| Last page | 825 |
| Online Only (Y/N) | N |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |