The decline of desert bighorn sheep on the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge (KNWR) beginning in 2003 stimulated efforts to determine the factors limiting survival and recruitment. We 1) determined pregnancy rates, body fat, and estimated survival rates of adults and lambs; 2) investigated the relationship between precipitation, forage conditions, previous year’s reproductive success, and adult body condition; 3) assessed the relative influence of body condition of adult females, precipitation, and forage characteristics on apparent survival of lambs; and 4) determined the prevalence of disease. To assess the influence of potential limiting factors on female desert bighorn sheep on the KNWR, we modeled percent body fat of adult females as a function of previous year’s reproductive effort, age class, and forage conditions (i.e., seasonal NDVI and seasonal precipitation). In addition, we assessed the relative influence of the body condition of adult females, precipitation, and forage conditions (NDVI) on length of time a lamb was observed at heel.

Adult female survival was high in both 2009 (0.90 [SE = 0.05]) and 2010 (0.96 [SE = 0.03]). Apparent lamb survival to 6 months of age was 0.23 (SE = 0.05) during 2009-2010 and 0.21 (SE = 0.05) during 2010-2011 lambing seasons. Mean body fat for adult females was 12.03% (SE = 0.479) in 2009-2010 and 11.11% (SE= 0.486) in 2010-2011 and was not significantly different between years. Pregnancy rate was 100% in 2009 and 97.5% in 2010.

Models containing the previous year’s reproductive effort, spring NDVI and previous year’s reproductive effort and spring precipitation best approximated data on percent body fat in adult females in 2009-2010. In 2010-2011, the two highest-ranking models included the previous year’s reproductive effort and winter NDVI and previous year’s reproductive effort, and winter and spring NDVI. None of the models assessing the influence of maternal body fat, precipitation, or forage conditions were particularly useful for predicting apparent lamb survival.

The high pregnancy rates and body fat levels in excess of 11% do not indicate that this population of desert bighorn was nutritionally stressed during our study and are thus likely not contributing to the low lamb survival estimates we observed. However, body condition data during the population decline is not available and whether this population was nutritionally limited during the initial population decline remains unknown.

The prevalence of disease in the Kofa herd may be a limiting factor; however, due to a lack of disease monitoring during the population decline it is uncertain if disease contributed to the decline. Further research is needed to fully understand the complex interaction of disease in this population at the individual and population level and determine to what extent disease predisposes individuals to predation or other causes of mortality.