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Abstract
An analysis of historical floods and seasonal streamflows during years with neutral El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific and “negative” states of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the North Pacific—like those expected next year—indicates that (1) chances of having maximum-daily flows next year that are near the longterm averages in many rivers are enhanced, especially in the western states, (2) chances of having near-average seasonal-average flows also may be enhanced across the country, and (3) locally, chances of large floods and winter-season flows may be enhanced in the extreme Northwest, chances of large winter flows may be diminished in rivers in and around Wisconsin, and chances of large spring flows may be diminished in the interior southwest and southeastern coastal plain. The background, methods, and forecast results that lead to these statements are detailed below, followed by a summary of the successes and failures of last year’s streamflow forecast by Dettinger et al. (1999).
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Winter-spring 2001 United States streamflow probabilities based on anticipated neutral ENSO conditions and recent NPO status |
| Series title | Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Year Published | 2000 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | California Applications Program |
| Contributing office(s) | San Francisco Bay-Delta, Pacific Regional Director's Office |
| Description | 6 p. |
| First page | 55 |
| Last page | 60 |
| Country | United States |
| Online Only (Y/N) | N |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |