The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty
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Abstract
The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.
Suggested Citation
Duputel, Z., Jiang, J., Jolivet, R., Simons, M., Rivera, L., Ampuero, J., Riel, B., Owen, S.E., Moore, A.W., Samsonov, S.V., Ortega Culaciati, F., and Minson, S.E., 2016, The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 42, no. 19, p. 7949-7957, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065402.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty |
| Series title | Geophysical Research Letters |
| DOI | 10.1002/2015GL065402 |
| Volume | 42 |
| Issue | 19 |
| Publication Date | October 03, 2015 |
| Year Published | 2016 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | AGU |
| Contributing office(s) | Earthquake Science Center |
| Description | 9 p. |
| First page | 7949 |
| Last page | 7957 |
| Country | Chile, Peru |
| Online Only (Y/N) | N |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |