Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

North American Journal of Fisheries Management
Cornell University
By: , and 



The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes
Series title North American Journal of Fisheries Management
DOI 10.1080/02755947.2016.1214647
Volume 36
Issue 6
Year Published 2016
Language English
Publisher Taylor & Francis
Publisher location Abingdon, UK
Contributing office(s) Great Lakes Science Center
Description 16 p.
First page 1292
Last page 1307
Country United States
Other Geospatial Great Lakes, Lake Superior, Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, Lake Ontario, Lake Erie
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