This study investigated the potential for the uranium mineral carnotite (K₂(UO₂)₂(VO₄)₂·3H₂O) to precipitate from evaporating groundwater in the Texas Panhandle region of the United States. The evolution of groundwater chemistry during evaporation was modeled with the USGS geochemical code PHREEQC using water-quality data from 100 groundwater wells downloaded from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) database. While most modeled groundwater compositions precipitated calcite upon evaporation, not all groundwater became saturated with respect to carnotite with the system open to CO₂. Thus, the formation of calcite is not a necessary condition for carnotite to form. Rather, the determining factor in achieving carnotite saturation was the evolution of groundwater chemistry during evaporation following calcite precipitation. Modeling in this study showed that if the initial major-ion groundwater composition was dominated by calcium-magnesium-sulfate (>70 precent Ca + Mg and >50 percent SO₄ + Cl) or calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate (>70 percent Ca + Mg and <70 percent HCO₃ + CO₃) and following the precipitation of calcite, the concentration of calcium was greater than the carbonate alkalinity (2mCa⁺² > mHCO₃⁻ + 2mCO₃⁻²) carnotite saturation was achieved. If, however, the initial major-ion groundwater composition is sodium-bicarbonate (varying amounts of Na, 40–100 percent Na), calcium-sodium-sulfate, or calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate composition (>70 percent HCO₃ + CO₃) and following the precipitation of calcite, the concentration of calcium was less than the carbonate alkalinity (2mCa⁺² < mHCO₃^- + 2mCO₃⁻²) carnotite saturation was not achieved. In systems open to CO_2, carnotite saturation occurred in most samples in evaporation amounts ranging from 95 percent to 99 percent with the partial pressure of CO₂ ranging from 10^−3.5 to 10^−2.5 atm. Carnotite saturation occurred in a few samples in evaporation amounts ranging from 98 percent to 99 percent with the partial pressure of CO₂ equal to 10^−2.0 atm. Carnotite saturation did not occur in any groundwater with the system closed to CO₂.