Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices
Journal of Climate
Links
- More information: Publisher Index Page (via DOI)
- Open Access Version: External Repository
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.
Suggested Citation
Ault, T.R., Schwartz, M.D., Zurita-Milla, R., Weltzin, J.F., Betancourt, J.L., 2015, Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices: Journal of Climate, v. 28, no. 21, p. 8363-8378, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00736.1.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices |
| Series title | Journal of Climate |
| DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00736.1 |
| Volume | 28 |
| Issue | 21 |
| Publication Date | October 30, 2015 |
| Year Published | 2015 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| Contributing office(s) | National Research Program - Eastern Branch |
| Description | 15 p. |
| First page | 8363 |
| Last page | 8378 |