Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
By: , and 

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Abstract

Ecosystem models are useful tools for understanding ecological processes and for sustainable management of resources. In biogeochemical field, numerical models have been widely used for investigating carbon dynamics under global changes from site to regional and global scales. However, it is still challenging to optimize parameters and estimate parameterization uncertainty for complex process-based models such as the Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), a modified version of CENTURY, that consider carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of ecosystems. This study was designed to conduct the parameter identifiability, optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of EDCM using our developed EDCM-Auto, which incorporated a comprehensive R package—Flexible Modeling Framework (FME) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm. Using a forest flux tower site as a case study, we implemented a comprehensive modeling analysis involving nine parameters and four target variables (carbon and water fluxes) with their corresponding measurements based on the eddy covariance technique. The local sensitivity analysis shows that the plant production-related parameters (e.g., PPDF1 and PRDX) are most sensitive to the model cost function. Both SCE and FME are comparable and performed well in deriving the optimal parameter set with satisfactory simulations of target variables. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that the parameter uncertainty and the resulting output uncertainty can be quantified, and that the magnitude of parameter-uncertainty effects depends on variables and seasons. This study also demonstrates that using the cutting-edge R functions such as FME can be feasible and attractive for conducting comprehensive parameter analysis for ecosystem modeling.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Parameter optimization, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis of an ecosystem model at a forest flux tower site in the United States
Series title Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
DOI 10.1002/2013MS000298
Volume 6
Issue 2
Year Published 2014
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
Description 15 p.
First page 405
Last page 419
Country United States
State Massachusetts
Other Geospatial Harvard Forest Environmental Monitoring Site
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
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