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Abstract
Prior to calculating time-independent and -dependent earthquake probabilities for faults in the Wasatch Front region, the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities (WGUEP) updated a seismic-source model for the region (Wong and others, 2014) and evaluated 19 historical regressions on earthquake magnitude (M). These regressions relate M to fault parameters for historical surface-faulting earthquakes, including linear fault length (e.g., surface-rupture length [SRL] or segment length), average displacement, maximum displacement, rupture area, seismic moment (Mo ), and slip rate. These regressions show that significant epistemic uncertainties complicate the determination of characteristic magnitude for fault sources in the Basin and Range Province (BRP). For example, we found that M estimates (as a function of SRL) span about 0.3–0.4 units (figure 1) owing to differences in the fault parameter used; age, quality, and size of historical earthquake databases; and fault type and region considered.
Publication type | Conference Paper |
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Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
Title | Analysis and selection of magnitude relations for the Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities |
Year Published | 2015 |
Language | English |
Publisher | Utah Geological Survey |
Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center |
Description | 30 p. |
Larger Work Type | Report |
Larger Work Subtype | State or Local Government Series |
Larger Work Title | Basin and Range Province Seismic Hazards Summit III, Utah Geological Survey Miscellaneous Publication 15-5 |
Conference Title | Basin and Range Province Seismic Hazards Summit III |
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