Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios
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Abstract
We examine the impacts of climate on net returns from crop and livestock production and the resulting impact on land-use change across the contiguous USA. We first estimate an econometric model to project effects of weather fluctuations on crop and livestock net returns and then use a semi-reduced form land-use share model to study agricultural land-use changes under future climate and socio-economic scenarios. Estimation results show that crop net returns are more sensitive to thermal and less sensitive to moisture variability than livestock net returns; other agricultural land uses substitute cropland use when 30-year averaged degree-days or precipitation are not beneficial for crop production. Under future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we project that crop and livestock net returns are both increasing, but with crop net returns increasing at a higher rate; cropland increases with declines of marginal and pastureland by the end of the twenty-first century. Projections also show that impacts of future climate on agricultural land uses are substantially different and a larger variation of land-use change is evident when socio-economic scenarios are incorporated into the climate impact analysis.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios |
| Series title | Climatic Change |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2033-x |
| Volume | 144 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Year Published | 2017 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer |
| Contributing office(s) | Western Geographic Science Center |
| Description | 17 p. |
| First page | 329 |
| Last page | 345 |
| Country | United States |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |