Context

Lake size has declined on breeding grounds for international populations of waterfowl.

Objectives

Our objectives were to (1) model the relationship between waterfowl species richness and lake size; (2) use the model and trends in lake size to project historical, contemporary, and future richness at 2500+ lakes; (3) evaluate mechanisms for the species–area relationship (SAR); and (4) identify species most vulnerable to shrinking lakes.

Methods

Monte Carlo simulations of the richness model were used to generate projections. Correlations between richness and both lake size and habitat diversity were compared to identify mechanisms for the SAR. Patterns of nestedness were used to identify vulnerable species.

Results

Species richness was greatest at lakes that were larger, closer to rivers, had more wetlands along their perimeters and were within 5 km of a large lake. Average richness per lake was projected to decline by 11 % from 1986 to 2050 but was heterogeneous across sub-regions and lakes. Richness in sub-regions with species-rich lakes was projected to remain stable, while richness in the sub-region with species-poor lakes was projected to decline. Lake size had a greater effect on richness than did habitat diversity, suggesting that large lakes have more species because they provide more habitat but not more habitat types. The vulnerability of species to shrinking lakes was related to species rarity rather than foraging guild.

Conclusions

Our maps of projected changes in species richness and rank-ordered list of species most vulnerable to shrinking lakes can be used to identify targets for conservation or monitoring.