Operational earthquake forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS model
Seismological Research Letters
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Abstract
The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high‐performance computing cluster within 33 min of the 4 July 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake. UCERF3‐ETAS, an extension of the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), is the first comprehensive, fault‐based, epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. It produces ensembles of synthetic aftershock sequences both on and off explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults to answer a key question repeatedly asked during the Ridgecrest sequence: What are the chances that the earthquake that just occurred will turn out to be the foreshock of an even bigger event?
Suggested Citation
Milner, K.R., Field, E., Savran, W.H., Page, M.T., and Jordan, T.H., 2020, Operational earthquake forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS model: Seismological Research Letters, v. 91, no. 3, p. 1567-1578, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190294.
ISSN: 1938-2057 (online)
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Operational earthquake forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS model |
| Series title | Seismological Research Letters |
| DOI | 10.1785/0220190294 |
| Volume | 91 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Publication Date | March 04, 2020 |
| Year Published | 2020 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Seismological Society of America |
| Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center |
| Description | 12 p. |
| First page | 1567 |
| Last page | 1578 |
| Country | United States |
| State | California |
| City | Ridgecrest |