Near-term spatial hydrologic forecasting in Everglades, USA for landscape planning and ecological forecasting

Leonard G. Pearlstine; James M. Beerens; Gregg Reynolds; Saira Haider; Mark McKelvy; Kevin Suir; Stephanie Romanach; Jennifer H. Nestler

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104783

Near-term spatial hydrologic forecasting in Everglades, USA for landscape planning and ecological forecasting

Environmental Modelling and Software

By: Leonard G. Pearlstine, James M. Beerens, Gregg Reynolds, Saira Haider, Mark McKelvy, Kevin Suir, Stephanie Romanach, and Jennifer H. Nestler

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104783

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More information: Publisher Index Page (via DOI)
Data Release: USGS data release - EverForecast hydrologic output for April 2020: a six-month water stage forecast for the Greater Everglades
Open Access Version: Publisher Index Page
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Abstract

Operational ecological forecasting is an emerging field that leverages ecological models in a new, cross-disciplinary way – using a real-time or nearly real-time climate forecast to project near-term ecosystem states. These applications give decision-makers lead time to anticipate and manage state changes that degrade ecosystem functions or directly impact humans. The Everglades Forecasting model (EverForecast) is an operational forecast model designed specifically for conservation management purposes including water management. It provides up to six-month forecasts of daily projected, spatially continuous stage values across the Everglades. We validated EverForecast quarterly to measured historical values at 207 gages (1 Jan 2000 – 31 Dec 2019). EverForecast hindcasted water stage accurately captured measured stage variation, with a low percentage of measured stage exceeding hindcasted values. Over the whole spatial extent, the mean RMSE is 20.98 cm, the mean MAE is 14.42 cm, and the mean MBE is 0.91 cm.

Study Area

Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Near-term spatial hydrologic forecasting in Everglades, USA for landscape planning and ecological forecasting
Series title	Environmental Modelling and Software
DOI	10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104783
Volume	132
Year Published	2020
Language	English
Publisher	Elsevier
Contributing office(s)	Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Description	104783, 13 p.
Country	United States
State	Florida
Other Geospatial	Everglades
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page