Near-term spatial hydrologic forecasting in Everglades, USA for landscape planning and ecological forecasting
Environmental Modelling and Software
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- More information: Publisher Index Page (via DOI)
- Data Release: USGS data release - EverForecast hydrologic output for April 2020: a six-month water stage forecast for the Greater Everglades
- Open Access Version: Publisher Index Page
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Abstract
Operational ecological forecasting is an emerging field that leverages ecological models in a new, cross-disciplinary way – using a real-time or nearly real-time climate forecast to project near-term ecosystem states. These applications give decision-makers lead time to anticipate and manage state changes that degrade ecosystem functions or directly impact humans. The Everglades Forecasting model (EverForecast) is an operational forecast model designed specifically for conservation management purposes including water management. It provides up to six-month forecasts of daily projected, spatially continuous stage values across the Everglades. We validated EverForecast quarterly to measured historical values at 207 gages (1 Jan 2000 – 31 Dec 2019). EverForecast hindcasted water stage accurately captured measured stage variation, with a low percentage of measured stage exceeding hindcasted values. Over the whole spatial extent, the mean RMSE is 20.98 cm, the mean MAE is 14.42 cm, and the mean MBE is 0.91 cm.
Suggested Citation
Pearlstine, L.G., Beerens, J., Reynolds, G., Haider, S., McKelvy, M., Suir, K., Romanach, S., Nestler, J.H., 2020, Near-term spatial hydrologic forecasting in Everglades, USA for landscape planning and ecological forecasting: Environmental Modelling and Software, v. 132, 104783, 13 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104783.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Near-term spatial hydrologic forecasting in Everglades, USA for landscape planning and ecological forecasting |
| Series title | Environmental Modelling and Software |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104783 |
| Volume | 132 |
| Year Published | 2020 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Contributing office(s) | Wetland and Aquatic Research Center |
| Description | 104783, 13 p. |
| Country | United States |
| State | Florida |
| Other Geospatial | Everglades |