Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across pan-arctic permafrost region

Susan M Natali; Jennifer D. Watts; Stefano Potter; Brendan M. Rogers; Sarah M. Ludwig; Anne-Katrin Selbmann; Patrick F. Sullivan; Benjamin W. Abbott; Kyle A. Arndt; Leah Birch; Mats P. Bjorkman; Anthony Bloom; Gerardo Celis; Torben R. Christiensen; Casper T. Christiansen; Roisin Commane; Elisabeth J. Cooper; Patrick Crill; Claudia Czimczik; Sergey Davydov; Jinyang Du; Jocelyn E. Egan; Bo Elberling; Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Thomas Friborg; Helene Genet; Mathias Gockede; Jordan P. Goodrich; Paul Grogan; Manuel Helbig; Elchin E. Jafarov; Julie Jastrow; Aram A.M. Kalhori; Yongwon Kim; John S Kimball; Lars Kutzbach; Mark J. Lara; Klaus S. Larsen; Michael M Loranty; Magnus Lund; Massimo Lupascu; Nima Madani; Avni Malhorta; Jack McFarland; David A. McGuire; Anders Michelson; Christina Minions; Walter C. Oechel; David Olefeldt; Frans-Jan Parmentier; Norbert Pirk; Benjamin Poulter; William L. Quinton; Fereidoun Rezanezhad; David Risk; Torsten Sachs; Kevin Schaefer; Neils M. Schmidt; Edward A. Schuur; Philipp R. Semenchuk; Gaius Shaver; Oliver Sonnentag; Gregory Starr; Claire C. Treat; Mark P. Waldrop; Yihui Wang; Jeffrey Welker; Christian Wille; Xiaofeng Xu; Zhen Zhang; Qianlai Zhuang; Donatella Zona

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

Large loss of CO₂ in winter observed across pan-arctic permafrost region

Nature Climate Change

By: Susan M Natali, Jennifer D. Watts, Stefano Potter, Brendan M. Rogers, Sarah M. Ludwig, Anne-Katrin Selbmann, Patrick F. Sullivan, Benjamin W. Abbott, Kyle A. Arndt, Leah Birch, Mats P. Bjorkman, Anthony Bloom, Gerardo Celis, Torben R. Christiensen, Casper T. Christiansen, Roisin Commane, Elisabeth J. Cooper, Patrick Crill, Claudia Czimczik, Sergey Davydov, Jinyang Du, Jocelyn E. Egan, Bo Elberling, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Thomas Friborg, Helene Genet, Mathias Gockede, Jordan P. Goodrich, Paul Grogan, Manuel Helbig, Elchin E. Jafarov, Julie Jastrow, Aram A.M. Kalhori, Yongwon Kim, John S Kimball, Lars Kutzbach, Mark J. Lara, Klaus S. Larsen, Michael M Loranty, Magnus Lund, Massimo Lupascu, Nima Madani, Avni Malhorta, Jack McFarland, David A. McGuire, Anders Michelson, Christina Minions, Walter C. Oechel, David Olefeldt, Frans-Jan Parmentier, Norbert Pirk, Benjamin Poulter, William L. Quinton, Fereidoun Rezanezhad, David Risk, Torsten Sachs, Kevin Schaefer, Neils M. Schmidt, Edward A. Schuur, Philipp R. Semenchuk, Gaius Shaver, Oliver Sonnentag, Gregory Starr, Claire C. Treat, Mark P. Waldrop, Yihui Wang, Jeffrey Welker, Christian Wille, Xiaofeng Xu, Zhen Zhang, Qianlai Zhuang, and Donatella Zona

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

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Abstract

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter^1,2,3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO₂)⁴. However, the amount of CO₂ released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates^5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO₂ flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO₂ emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO₂ emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO₂ loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across pan-arctic permafrost region
Series title	Nature Climate Change
DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8
Volume	9
Publication Date	October 21, 2019
Year Published	2019
Language	English
Publisher	Nature Publishing Group
Contributing office(s)	Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description	6 p.
First page	852
Last page	857
Country	Antartica
Other Geospatial	northern permafrost region