Spatial variability in seasonal snowpack trends across the Rio Grande headwaters (1984 - 2017)

Journal of Hydrometeorology
By: , and 



This study evaluated the spatial variability of trends in simulated snowpack properties across the Rio Grande headwaters of Colorado using the SnowModel snow evolution modeling system. SnowModel simulations were performed using a grid resolution of 100 m and 3-hourly time step over a 34-yr period (1984–2017). Atmospheric forcing was provided by phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System, and the simulations accounted for temporal changes in forest canopy from bark beetle and wildfire disturbances. Annual summary values of simulated snowpack properties [snow metrics; e.g., peak snow water equivalent (SWE), snowmelt rate and timing, and snow sublimation] were used to compute trends across the domain. Trends in simulated snow metrics varied depending on elevation, aspect, and land cover. Statistically significant trends did not occur evenly within the basin, and some areas were more sensitive than others. In addition, there were distinct trend differences between the different snow metrics. Upward trends in mean winter air temperature were 0.3°C decade−1, and downward trends in winter precipitation were −52 mm decade−1. Middle elevation zones, coincident with the greatest volumetric snow water storage, exhibited the greatest sensitivity to changes in peak SWE and snowmelt rate. Across the Rio Grande headwaters, snowmelt rates decreased by 20% decade−1, peak SWE decreased by 14% decade−1, and total snowmelt quantity decreased by 13% decade−1. These snow trends are in general agreement with widespread snow declines that have been reported for this region. This study further quantifies these snow declines and provides trend information for additional snow variables across a greater spatial coverage at finer spatial resolution.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Spatial variability in seasonal snowpack trends across the Rio Grande headwaters (1984 - 2017)
Series title Journal of Hydrometeorology
DOI 10.1175/JHM-D-20-0077.1
Volume 21
Issue 11
Year Published 2020
Language English
Publisher American Meteorological Society
Contributing office(s) Colorado Water Science Center
Description 21 p.
First page 2713
Last page 2733
Country United States
State Colorado
Other Geospatial Rio Grande headwaters
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