Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE

Jessica R.  Rodysill; Jeffrey P. Donnelly; Richard Sullivan; Philip D. Lane; Michael Toomey; Jonathan D. Woodruff; Andrea D. Hawkes; Dana MacDonald; Nicole d’Entremont; Kelly McKeon; Elizabeth Wallace; Peter J. van Hengstum

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75874-0

Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE

Scientific Reports

By: Jessica R. Rodysill, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, Richard Sullivan, Philip D. Lane, Michael Toomey, Jonathan D. Woodruff, Andrea D. Hawkes, Dana MacDonald, Nicole d’Entremont, Kelly McKeon, Elizabeth Wallace, and Peter J. van Hengstum

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75874-0

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Abstract

Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE
Series title	Scientific Reports
DOI	10.1038/s41598-020-75874-0
Volume	10
Year Published	2020
Language	English
Publisher	Nature
Contributing office(s)	Florence Bascom Geoscience Center
Description	19092, 17 p.
Country	Mexico, United States
Other Geospatial	Gulf of Mexico
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page