More fault connectivity Is needed in seismic hazard analysis
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
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Abstract
Did the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) go overboard with multifault ruptures? Schwartz (2018) argues that there are too many long ruptures in the model. Here, I address his concern and show that the UCERF3 rupture‐length distribution matches empirical data. I also present evidence that, if anything, the UCERF3 model could be improved by adding more connectivity to the fault system. Adding more connectivity would improve model misfits with data, particularly with paleoseismic data on the southern San Andreas fault; make the model less characteristic on the faults; potentially improve aftershock forecasts; and reduce model sensitivity to inadequacies and unknowns in the modeled fault system.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | More fault connectivity Is needed in seismic hazard analysis |
| Series title | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
| DOI | 10.1785/0120200119 |
| Volume | 111 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Publication Date | November 03, 2020 |
| Year Published | 2020 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Seismological Society of America |
| Contributing office(s) | Earthquake Science Center |
| Description | 7 p. |
| First page | 391 |
| Last page | 397 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |