How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin?

Geophysical Research Letters
By: , and 



Baseflow is critical to sustaining streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Therefore, effective water resources management requires estimates of baseflow response to climatic changes. This study provides the first estimates of projected baseflow changes from historical (1984 – 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry climatic conditions using a hybrid statistical-deterministic baseflow model. Total baseflow supplied to the Lower Colorado River Basin may decline by up to 33%, although this value may increase in the near future by 6% under warm/wet conditions. The percentage of baseflow lost during in-stream transport is projected to increase by 1 - 5% relative to historical conditions. Results highlight that climate driven changes in high elevation hydrology have impacts on basin-wide water availability. Study results have implications for human and ecological water availability in one of the most heavily managed watersheds in the world.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title How will baseflow respond to climate change in the Upper Colorado River Basin?
Series title Geophysical Research Letters
DOI 10.1029/2021GL095085
Volume 48
Issue 22
Year Published 2021
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Utah Water Science Center
Description e2021GL095085, 11 p.
Country United States
State Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
Other Geospatial upper Colorado River Basin
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