Cross-scale interactions dictate regional lake carbon flux and productivity response to future climate

Geophysical Research Letters
By: , and 

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Abstract

Lakes support globally important food webs through algal productivity and contribute significantly to the global carbon cycle. However, predictions of how broad-scale lake carbon flux and productivity may respond to future climate are extremely limited. Here, we used an integrated modeling framework to project changes in lake-specific and regional primary productivity and carbon fluxes under 21st century climate for thousands of lakes. We observed high uncertainty in whether lakes collectively were to increase or decrease lake CO2 emissions and carbon burial in our modeled region owing to divergence in projected regional water balance among climate models. Variation in projected air temperature influenced projected changes in lake primary productivity (but not CO2 emissions or carbon burial) as warmer air temperatures decreased productivity through reduced lake water volume. Cross-scale interactions between regional drivers and local characteristics dictated the magnitude and direction of lake-specific carbon flux and productivity responses to future climate.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Cross-scale interactions dictate regional lake carbon flux and productivity response to future climate
Series title Geophysical Research Letters
DOI 10.1029/2019GL083478
Volume 46
Issue 15
Year Published 2019
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) New York Water Science Center, WMA - Integrated Information Dissemination Division
Description 12 p.
First page 8840
Last page 8851
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