Could Kı̄lauea's 2020 post caldera-forming eruption have been anticipated?
Geophysical Research Letters
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Abstract
In 2018 Kīlauea volcano erupted a decade’s worth of basalt, given estimated magma supply rates, triggering caldera collapse. Yet, less than 2.5 years later Kīlauea re-erupted. At the 2018 eruption onset, pressure within the summit reservoir was ~20 MPa above magmastatic. By the onset of collapse this decreased by ~17 MPa. Analysis of magma surges at the 2018 fissures, following collapse events, implies excess pressure at the eruption end of only ~1 MPa. Given the new vent elevation, ∼11 − 12 MPa pressure increase was required to bring magma to the surface in December 2020. Analysis of GPS data between 8/2018 and 12/2020 shows there was a 73% probability that this condition was met at the onset of the 2020 eruption. Given a plausible range of possible vent elevations, there was a 40 to 88% probability of sufficient pressure to bring magma to the surface 100 days before the eruption.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Could Kı̄lauea's 2020 post caldera-forming eruption have been anticipated? |
| Series title | Geophysical Research Letters |
| DOI | 10.1029/2022GL099270 |
| Volume | 49 |
| Issue | 15 |
| Year Published | 2022 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| Contributing office(s) | Volcano Science Center |
| Description | e2022GL099270, 9 p. |
| Country | United States |
| State | Hawai'i |
| Other Geospatial | Kı̄lauea volcano |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |