Integrated modeling of dynamic marsh feedbacks and evolution under sea-level rise in a mesotidal estuary (Plum Island, MA, USA)

Water Resources Research
By: , and 

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Abstract

Around the world, wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise (SLR) depends on different factors including tidal regimes, topography, creeks and estuary geometry, sediment availability, vegetation type, etc. The Plum Island estuary (PIE) is a mesotidal wetland system on the east coast of the United States. This research applied a newly updated Hydro-MEM (integrated hydrodynamic-marsh) model to assess the impacts of intermediate-low (50 cm), intermediate (1 m), and intermediate-high (1.5 m) SLR on marsh evolution by the year 2100. Model advancements include capturing vegetation change, inorganic and below and aboveground organic matter portion of marsh platform accretion, and mudflat creation. Although the results indicate a low vulnerability marsh at the PIE, the vegetation changes from high to low marsh under all SLR scenarios (2%–22%), with the higher bounds belonging to higher rise scenarios. Lower SLR produces more productive marsh (13% gain in high productivity regions), whereas the highest SLR scenario causes increased tidal inundation, which leads to loss in productivity (12% change from high to low productivity regions), generation of mudflats (17% of the domain land), and marsh migration to higher lands. Sensitive nonlinear tidal flow changes, which may be increased or decreased with SLR as a result of mudflat creation, marsh migration, and bottom friction change, emphasize the importance of integrated modeling approaches that include dynamic marsh feedbacks in hydrodynamic modeling and varying hydrodynamic effects on the marsh system.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Integrated modeling of dynamic marsh feedbacks and evolution under sea-level rise in a mesotidal estuary (Plum Island, MA, USA)
Series title Water Resources Research
DOI 10.1029/2022WR032225
Volume 58
Issue 8
Year Published 2022
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description e2022WR032225, 18 p.
Country United States
State Massachusetts
Other Geospatial Plum Island, Plum Island Estuary
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