Modeling total water level and coastal change at Pea Island, North Carolina, USA

By: , and 



The DUring Nearshore Event eXperiment (DUNEX) was carried out on Pea Island, North Carolina, USA between September-October 2021. We use a coupled numerical model (Windsurf) to hindcast the evolution of the DUNEX transect and produce a time series of hourly water levels at the shoreline from the model output. In addition to assessing the ability of Windsurf to reproduce TWL, we use model output paired with an ensemble of empirical models to assess how TWL forecasts can be improved by incorporating dynamic morphology. The morphological hindcast achieved an RMSE of 0.10 m and a BSS of 0.47, while the total water level (TWL) time series from the model correlates with the U.S. Geological Survey forecast (r2 = 0.61) for the study period but with a 0.47 m bias that is primarily due to the much steeper beach slope used to produce the forecast compared to that surveyed at the start of the study period. We find that using dynamic morphology provides a small but statistically significant (α = 0.05) improvement in predicting TWL versus applying the pre-storm beach slope to the whole time series.

Study Area

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Modeling total water level and coastal change at Pea Island, North Carolina, USA
DOI 10.1142/9789811275135_0065
Year Published 2023
Language English
Publisher World Scientific
Contributing office(s) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description 13 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Conference publication
Larger Work Title The proceedings of the coastal sediments 2023
First page 698
Last page 710
Conference Title Coastal Sediments 2023
Conference Location New Orleans, LA
Conference Date April 11-15, 2023
Country United States
State North Carolina
Other Geospatial Pea Island
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