Effects of climate change on the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the Caulks Creek basin, Wildwood, Missouri

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Abstract

The city of Wildwood, Missouri, has identified fluvial erosion along Caulks Creek as a management priority due to potential effects to infrastructure and property. The upper and middle reaches of Caulks Creek flow intermittently (only immediately after precipitation), whereas the lower reach flows perennially. This study examines the effects of climate change and added storage on the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the Caulks Creek Basin to design storms. The study uses hydrologic (Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System – HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System – HEC-RAS) models furnished by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). HEC-HMS simulations were used to quantify the peak, volume, and timing of the flow response to a suite of design storms under both normal and wet antecedent conditions and for both the existing storage structures and new storage in the basin. The suite of design storms included all combinations of the following: (a) storm durations: 6-hour and 24-hour, (b) annual exceedance probabilities: 0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, and 0.01, (c) climate conditions: current, 30-year, and 80-year predictions of future climate from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Data Processing Tool. Additionally, for a selection of scenarios, results from the HEC-HMS simulations were used as boundary conditions for two-dimensional (2D) HEC-RAS simulations aimed at understanding how the distribution of velocity, shear stress, and stream power throughout the stream may be affected by projected changes in climate.

Study Area

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Effects of climate change on the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the Caulks Creek basin, Wildwood, Missouri
Year Published 2023
Language English
Contributing office(s) Central Midwest Water Science Center
Description 5 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Conference publication
Larger Work Title SEDHYD 2023
Conference Title SEDHYD-2023, Sedimentation and Hydrologic Modeling Conference
Conference Location St. Louis, MO
Conference Date May 8-12, 2023
Country United States
State Missouri
City Wildwood
Other Geospatial Caulks Creek basin
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