Toward a total water level forecast of the Great Lakes
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Abstract
The combined effect of storm surge and large waves is the main driving mechanism that erodes beaches, inundates low-lying areas, leading to millions of dollars in property damage, loss of natural resources, and lives. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aims to expand the real-time total water level (TWL) forecast provided in the Operational Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecasts (TWL&CC) to the Great Lakes short- (0 – 36 hours) to medium-term (3 – 5 days) coastal-hazard forecasts to inform planners and emergency responders. This study assesses the skill of forecast water levels and wave characteristics required as input to the TWL forecasts. It finds that, while skill generally decreases as forecast period increases, these data are suitable as input to the TWL forecast system. As the TWL predictions depend on the water level and wave forecasts, validation against field observations allow evaluation of their suitability for the Great Lakes. These results have implications on the prediction of water levels and their potential impacts on coastal resiliency in North America.
Study Area
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Toward a total water level forecast of the Great Lakes |
| DOI | 10.1142/9789811275135_0039 |
| Year Published | 2023 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | World Scientific |
| Contributing office(s) | St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center |
| Description | 9 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Book |
| Larger Work Subtype | Conference publication |
| Larger Work Title | The proceedings of the coastal sediments 2023 |
| First page | 426 |
| Last page | 434 |
| Conference Title | Coastal Sediments 2023 |
| Conference Location | New Orleans, LA |
| Conference Date | April 11-15, 2023 |
| Country | Canada, United States |
| Other Geospatial | Great Lakes |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |