Rapidly changing range limits in a warming world: Critical data limitations and knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of mangrove range dynamics in the southeastern USA

Remi Bardou; Michael Osland; Steven B. Scyphers; Christine C. Shepard; Karen E. Aerni; Jahson B. Alemu; Robert Crimian; Richard Day; Nicholas Enwright; Laura Feher; Sarah L. Gibbs; Kiera O’Donnell; Savannah H. Swinea; Kalaina Thorne; Sarit Truskey; Anna R. Armitage; Ronald J. Baker; Joshua L. Breithaupt; Kyle C. Cavanaugh; Just Cebrian; Karen Cummins; Donna J. Devlin; Jacob Doty; William L. Ellis; Ilka C. Feller; Christopher A. Gabler; Yiyang Kang; David A. Kaplan; John Paul Kennedy; Ken Krauss; Margaret Lamont; Kam-biu Liu; Melinda Martinez; Ashley M. Matheny; Giovanna M. McClenachan; Karen L. McKee; Irving A. Mendelssohn; Thomas C. Michot; Christopher J. Miller; Jena A. Moon; Ryan P. Moyer; James A. Nelson; Richard O’Connor; James W. Pahl; Jonathan L. Pitchford; C. Edward Proffitt; Tracy Quirk; Kara R. Radabaugh; Whitney A. Scheffel; Delbert L. Smee; Caitlin M. Snyder; Eric Sparks; Kathleen M. Swanson; William C. Vervaeke; Carolyn A. Weaver; Jonathan A Willis; Erik S. Yando; Qiang Yao; A. Randall Hughes

doi:10.1007/s12237-023-01209-7

Rapidly changing range limits in a warming world: Critical data limitations and knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of mangrove range dynamics in the southeastern USA

Estuaries and Coasts

By: Remi Bardou, Michael Osland, Steven B. Scyphers, Christine C. Shepard, Karen E. Aerni, Jahson B. Alemu, Robert Crimian, Richard Day, Nicholas Enwright, Laura Feher, Sarah L. Gibbs, Kiera O’Donnell, Savannah H. Swinea, Kalaina Thorne, Sarit Truskey, Anna R. Armitage, Ronald J. Baker, Joshua L. Breithaupt, Kyle C. Cavanaugh, Just Cebrian, Karen Cummins, Donna J. Devlin, Jacob Doty, William L. Ellis, Ilka C. Feller, Christopher A. Gabler, Yiyang Kang, David A. Kaplan, John Paul Kennedy, Ken Krauss, Margaret Lamont, Kam-biu Liu, Melinda Martinez, Ashley M. Matheny, Giovanna M. McClenachan, Karen L. McKee, Irving A. Mendelssohn, Thomas C. Michot, Christopher J. Miller, Jena A. Moon, Ryan P. Moyer, James A. Nelson, Richard O’Connor, James W. Pahl, Jonathan L. Pitchford, C. Edward Proffitt, Tracy Quirk, Kara R. Radabaugh, Whitney A. Scheffel, Delbert L. Smee, Caitlin M. Snyder, Eric Sparks, Kathleen M. Swanson, William C. Vervaeke, Carolyn A. Weaver, Jonathan A Willis, Erik S. Yando, Qiang Yao, and A. Randall Hughes

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-023-01209-7

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Abstract

Climate change is altering species’ range limits and transforming ecosystems. For example, warming temperatures are leading to the range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive species at the expense of their cold-tolerant counterparts. In some temperate and subtropical coastal wetlands, warming winters are enabling mangrove forest encroachment into salt marsh, which is a major regime shift that has significant ecological and societal ramifications. Here, we synthesized existing data and expert knowledge to assess the distribution of mangroves near rapidly changing range limits in the southeastern USA. We used expert elicitation to identify data limitations and highlight knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of past, current, and future range dynamics. Mangroves near poleward range limits are often shorter, wider, and more shrublike compared to their tropical counterparts that grow as tall forests in freeze-free, resource-rich environments. The northern range limits of mangroves in the southeastern USA are particularly dynamic and climate sensitive due to abundance of suitable coastal wetland habitat and the exposure of mangroves to winter temperature extremes that are much colder than comparable range limits on other continents. Thus, there is need for methodological refinements and improved spatiotemporal data regarding changes in mangrove structure and abundance near northern range limits in the southeastern USA. Advancing understanding of rapidly changing range limits is critical for foundation plant species such as mangroves, as it provides a basis for anticipating and preparing for the cascading effects of climate-induced species redistribution on ecosystems and the human communities that depend on their ecosystem services.

Suggested Citation

Bardou, R., Osland, M., Scyphers, S.B., Shepard, C., Aerni, K.E., Alemu, J.B., Crimian, R., Day, R., Enwright, N., Feher, L., Gibbs, S.L., O’Donnell, K., Swinea, S.H., Thorne, K., Truskey, S., Armitage, A.R., Baker, R., Breithaupt, J.L., Cavanaugh, K.C., Cebrian, J., Cummins, K., Devlin, D.J., Doty, J., Ellis, W.L., Feller, I.C., Gabler, C., Kang, Y., Kaplan, D.A., Kennedy, J.P., Krauss, K., Lamont, M., Liu, K., Martinez, M., Matheny, A.M., McClenachan, G.M., McKee, K.L., Mendelssohn, I.A., Michot, T.C., Miller, C., Moon, J.A., Moyer, R.P., Nelson, J., O’Connor, R., Pahl, J.W., Pitchford, J.L., Proffitt, C., Quirk, T., Radabaugh, K.R., Scheffel, W.A., Smee, D.L., Snyder, C.M., Sparks, E., Swanson, K., Vervaeke, W.C., Weaver, C.A., Willis, J., Yando, E.S., Yao, Q., and Hughes, A.R., 2023, Rapidly changing range limits in a warming world: Critical data limitations and knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of mangrove range dynamics in the southeastern USA: Estuaries and Coasts, v. 46, p. 1123-1140, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-023-01209-7.

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Rapidly changing range limits in a warming world: Critical data limitations and knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of mangrove range dynamics in the southeastern USA
Series title	Estuaries and Coasts
DOI	10.1007/s12237-023-01209-7
Volume	46
Publication Date	May 09, 2023
Year Published	2023
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Nature
Contributing office(s)	Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Description	18 p.; Data Release
First page	1123
Last page	1140
Country	United States
State	Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas