Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast

Natural Hazards
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Abstract

A 38-year hindcast water level product is developed for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic coastline from the entrance of Chesapeake Bay to the southeast tip of Florida. The water level modelling framework utilized in this study combines a global-scale hydrodynamic model (Global Tide and Surge Model, GTSM-ERA5), a novel ensemble-based tide model, a parameterized wave setup model, and statistical corrections applied to improve modelled water level components. Corrected water level data are found to be skillful, with an RMSE of 13 cm, when compared to observed water level measurement at tide gauge locations. The largest errors in the hindcast are location-based and typically found in the tidal component of the model. Extreme water levels across the region are driven by compound events, in this case referring to combined surge, tide, and wave forcing. However, the relative importance of water level components varies spatially, such that tides are found to be more important in the center of the study region, non-tidal residual water levels to the north, and wave setup in the north and south. Hurricanes drive the most extreme water level events within the study area, but non-hurricane events define the low to mid-level recurrence interval water level events. This study presents a robust analysis of the complex oceanographic factors that drive coastal flood events. This dataset will support a variety of critical coastal research goals including research related to coastal hazards, landscape change, and community risk assessments.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast
Series title Natural Hazards
DOI 10.1007/s11069-023-05939-6
Volume 117
Year Published 2023
Language English
Publisher Springer
Contributing office(s) Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description 30 p.
First page 2219
Last page 2248
Country United States
State Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia
Other Geospatial Atlantic Ocean
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