Integrated strategies for enhanced rapid earthquake shaking, ground failure, and impact estimation employing remotely sensed and ground truth constraints
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Abstract
Estimating earthquake impacts using physical or empirical models is challenging because the three components of loss estimation-shaking, exposure, and vulnerabilities-entail inherent uncertainties. Loss modeling in near-real-time adds additional uncertainties, yet expectations for actionable information with a reasonable level of confidence in the results are real. The modeling approaches described herein augment inherently uncertain prior hazard and loss models with an integrated strategy for updating these priors with ground-truth observations, thereby greatly reducing their uncertainties. Two strategies are employed. Early reports of casualties are used in a Bayesian updating fashion to constrain the possible range of fatalities and to lower the prior models' uncertainties. Additionally, remotely sensed satellite radar data, in the form of a Damage Proxy Map (or DPM), are used in a Bayesian causal graph framework combined with machine learning to optimize the mapping among the physical processes that cause shaking-based building damage, landslides, and liquefaction to prior expectation models. The casual graph framework also affords the potential for removing anthropogenetic noise contained in the imagery. Ultimately, our two-fold model updating strategy will accommodate key ground-truth observations such as fatality reports, locations of building damage, and ground failure reports to converge on actual losses more rapidly.
Suggested Citation
Wald, D.J., Xu, S., Noh, H., Dimasaka, J., Jaiswal, K.S., Allstadt, K.E., Engler, D.T., 2022, Integrated strategies for enhanced rapid earthquake shaking, ground failure, and impact estimation employing remotely sensed and ground truth constraints, in Proceedings from the 12th national conference on earthquake engineering, Salt Lake City, UT, June 27 - July 1, 2022, 5 p.
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Integrated strategies for enhanced rapid earthquake shaking, ground failure, and impact estimation employing remotely sensed and ground truth constraints |
| Year Published | 2022 |
| Language | English |
| Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center - Seismology / Geomagnetism |
| Description | 5 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Book |
| Larger Work Subtype | Conference publication |
| Larger Work Title | Proceedings from the 12th national conference on earthquake engineering |
| Conference Title | 12th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering |
| Conference Location | Salt Lake City, UT |
| Conference Date | June 27 - July 1, 2022 |