The long shadow of a major disaster: Modeled dynamic impacts of the hypothetical HayWired earthquake on California’s economy
Links
- More information: Publisher Index Page (via DOI)
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
We develop and apply a dynamic economic simulation model to analyze the multi-regional impacts of, and mechanisms of recovery from, a major disaster, the HayWired scenario — a hypothetical Magnitude 7.0 earthquake affecting California’s San Francisco Bay Area. The model integrates loss pathways: capital stock damage, labor supply shocks due to short-term population displacement and longer-run out-migration from damaged areas, and the exacerbating effects of damage to transportation infrastructure capital, as well as various aspects of static and dynamic economic resilience. With input substitution-based static inherent resilience and dynamic resilience in the form of optimal intertemporal and spatial investment allocation, gross output losses range from 0.5 percent to 6 percent across regions, and welfare losses are 0.4 percent statewide but can be ten times as large in hardest-hit areas. Large-scale reconstruction investment is supported by substantial interregional transfers of resources through intra-state trade. Increased output via firms engaging in the key adaptive resilience tactic of production recapture can alleviate a substantial fraction of losses—but only if upstream and downstream barriers to recovery can be lowered quickly.
Suggested Citation
Sue Wing, I., Rose, A.Z., Wei, D., and Wein, A., 2024, The long shadow of a major disaster: Modeled dynamic impacts of the hypothetical HayWired earthquake on California’s economy: International Regional Science Review, v. 47, no. 5-6, p. 655-696, https://doi.org/10.1177/01600176231202451.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | The long shadow of a major disaster: Modeled dynamic impacts of the hypothetical HayWired earthquake on California’s economy |
| Series title | International Regional Science Review |
| DOI | 10.1177/01600176231202451 |
| Volume | 47 |
| Issue | 5-6 |
| Publication Date | October 04, 2023 |
| Year Published | 2024 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Sage Journals |
| Contributing office(s) | Western Geographic Science Center |
| Description | 42 p. |
| First page | 655 |
| Last page | 696 |
| Country | United States |
| State | California |
| Other Geospatial | San Francisco Bay area |