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Abstract
Predicting the timing and location of natural wet avalanche events is challenging, especially the release of wet slabs. In this study, we describe the existing snowpack structure, weather, and observed avalanche activity for two separate wet avalanche cycles in different avalanche climate types: northwest Montana and central Colorado. In both cases, the regional avalanche forecast centers initially predicted an avalanche hazard rating lower than the observed avalanche hazard and did not initially predict the occurrence of wet slab avalanches. Large wet slab avalanche activity began during the early stages of the first, rapid warming event of the season in both regions, challenging the notion that a lack of overnight refreeze is important for large wet avalanche cycles. This highlights the need for improvement in forecasting wet avalanche events/cycles. Here, we discuss lessons learned and operational strategies for improving forecast accuracy during significant melting events. These include focused field assessments in shallow snowpack areas and low elevation terrain, proactive late-day monitoring beyond normal field hours, and additional meteorological considerations, such as cloud cover and energy balance assessments, prior to and during notable warm-ups.
Study Area
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Under-forecasting wet avalanche cycles: Case studies and lessons learned from two wet avalanche cycles in northwest Montana and central Colorado |
| Year Published | 2023 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | International Snow Science Workshop |
| Contributing office(s) | Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center |
| Description | 11 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Book |
| Larger Work Subtype | Conference publication |
| Larger Work Title | Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop 2023 |
| First page | 1082 |
| Last page | 1092 |
| Conference Title | International Snow Science Workshop 2023 |
| Conference Location | Bend, OR |
| Conference Date | October 8-13, 2023 |
| Country | United States |
| State | Colorado, Montana |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |