Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk

Georgina M. Sanchez; Anna Petrasova; Megan M. Skrip; Elyssa Collins; Margaret A. Lawrimore; John B. Vogler; Adam Terando; Jelena Vukomanovic; Helena Mitasova; Ross K. Meentemeyer

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-46195-9

Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk

Scientific Reports

By: Georgina M. Sanchez, Anna Petrasova, Megan M. Skrip, Elyssa Collins, Margaret A. Lawrimore, John B. Vogler, Adam Terando, Jelena Vukomanovic, Helena Mitasova, and Ross K. Meentemeyer

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-46195-9

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Abstract

Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and other responses to flooding, essentially depicting the geography of impact and response. Accounting for human migration reduced total amounts of projected developed land exposed to flooding by 2050 by 5%–24%, depending on flood hazard zone (50%–0.2% annual probability). We simulated various “what-if” scenarios and found managed retreat to be the only intervention with predicted exposure below baseline conditions. In the business-as-usual scenario, existing and future development must be either protected or abandoned to cope with future flooding. Our open framework can be applied to different regions and advances local to regional-scale efforts to evaluate potential risks and tradeoffs.

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk
Series title	Scientific Reports
DOI	10.1038/s41598-023-46195-9
Volume	13
Year Published	2023
Language	English
Publisher	Nature
Contributing office(s)	Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center
Description	18869, 15 p.
Country	United States
State	South Carolina
County	Berkeley County, Charleston County, Dorchester County
City	Charleston, Moncks Corner, Summerville
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page