Most of the world’s river-floodplain ecosystems are simultaneously undergoing modifications to their hydrological regimes and experiencing species invasions, making it unclear whether invasive species are the main drivers of ecosystem change or simply responding to changes in the hydrological regime.

We simulated patterns of forest recruitment and succession in a 2500-ha portion of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain with and without removal of invasive Phalaris arundinacea and under two different future 100-year hydrological scenarios: a future maintaining the average flooding conditions of the past 40 years (random) and a future that projects an observed upward 40-year trend in flooding conditions forward (trending). By comparing scenarios that included Phalaris removal and ones that did not, we were able to identify the conditions where Phalaris was the main driver of forest loss vs. the conditions where hydrology was the main driver of forest loss. Areas where Phalaris was the main driver of forest loss had mean annual flood inundation durations that were similar to areas that did not lose forest cover (60–90 growing season days), while areas where flooding was the main driver of forest loss had longer mean inundation durations (102–124 growing season days). In comparison to the random hydrology scenario, the trending scenario produced a decrease in the area over which Phalaris was identified as the main driver of forest loss and an increase in the area over which flood inundation was identified as the main driver of forest loss. Thus, if the observed trends in flooding continue, our model projects an increase in the area over which eradicating Phalaris is unlikely to result in the maintenance of forest cover. We used the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework to discuss potential management options to resist changes and maintain forest cover where Phalaris is likely to be the main driver of forest loss and to accept or direct changes in areas where forest loss is likely driven by hydrological change.