In recent years, the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) has experienced the highest rates of wetland loss in the USA. Although the process of vertical drowning has been heavily studied in coastal wetlands, less is known about the relationship between elevation change and land loss in wetlands that are experiencing lateral erosion and the contribution of erosion to land loss in the MRDP. We quantified relationships of elevation change and land change in ten submerging tidal wetlands and found that, despite significant land loss, elevation trajectories in seven of the land loss study sites were positive. Furthermore, we observed an acceleration in elevation gain preceding the conversion from vegetated marsh to open water.

To identify regional contributions of lateral erosion to land loss, we quantified the relationship of elevation change and land change in 159 tidal marsh sites in the MRDP. Approximately half the sites were persistently losing land, and 82% of these sites were vulnerable to erosion, identifying erosion as a dominant mechanism of coastal wetland loss in this region. Notably, the sites that were vulnerable to erosion were experiencing land loss while also gaining elevation, and sites with the highest land loss exhibited accelerating elevation gain. Together, these data illustrate that (1) erosion is a dominant mechanism of wetland loss in the MRDP, (2) accelerated elevation gain is an indicator of erosion, and (3) consideration of elevation change trajectories within the context of land change is critical for providing accurate coastal wetland vulnerability assessments.