Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world
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Abstract
Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world |
| Series title | Nature Water |
| DOI | 10.1038/s44221-024-00239-0 |
| Volume | 2 |
| Year Published | 2024 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Nature |
| Contributing office(s) | WMA - Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division |
| Description | 15 p. |
| First page | 419 |
| Last page | 433 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |