Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model

Earthquake Spectra
By: , and 

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Abstract

We present earthquake scenarios developed to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Scenarios can serve a range of local and regional needs, from developing proactive-targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk to aiding emergency management planning. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to communicate seismic hazard and risk to audiences who are not well versed in methods, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Specifically, we discuss the scenarios developed, challenges, and lessons learned in the development process, and how this work aided the development of the 2023 NSHM itself. In total, 28 scenarios were developed for Hawaii, Utah, Alaska, and Virginia considering the 2023 NSHM science, past scenario efforts, and input from local experts and stakeholders. Finally, we investigate how NSHM modeling decisions can change estimated impacts to Utah and Hawaii in more detail showing, for example, that a shallower dip of the Wasatch fault under Salt Lake City can increase predicted ground-motion intensities and therefore estimated losses and deaths.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model
Series title Earthquake Spectra
DOI 10.1177/87552930241253837
Volume 40
Issue 3
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher Sage Journals
Contributing office(s) Geologic Hazards Science Center - Seismology / Geomagnetism
Description 27 p.
First page 1818
Last page 1844
Country United States
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