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Contrasting demographic responses under future climate for two populations of a montane amphibian

Climate Change Ecology
By: , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100081

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Abstract

For species with complex life histories, climate change can have contrasting effects for different life stages within locally adapted populations and may result in responses counter to general climate change predictions. Using data from two, 14-year demographic studies for a North American montane amphibian, Cascades frog (Rana cascadae), we quantified how aspects of current climate influenced annual survival of larvae and adult stages and modeled the stochastic population growth rate (λs) of each population for current (1980–2006) and future periods (2080s). Climate drivers of survival for the populations were similar for larvae (i.e., decreases in precipitation lead to pond drying and mortality), but diverged for terrestrial stages where decreases in winter length and summer precipitation had opposite effects. By the 2080s, we predict one population will be in sharp decline (λs = 0.90), while the other population will remain nearly stable (λs = 0.99) in the absence of other stressors, such as mortality due to disease. Our case study demonstrates a result counter to many climate envelope predictions in that stage-specific responses to local climate and hydrology result in a higher extinction risk for the more northern population.

    Study Area

    Publication type Article
    Publication Subtype Journal Article
    Title Contrasting demographic responses under future climate for two populations of a montane amphibian
    Series title Climate Change Ecology
    DOI 10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100081
    Volume 7
    Year Published 2024
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier
    Contributing office(s) Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center
    Description 100081, 10 p.
    Country United States
    State California, Oregon, Washington
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