Post-wildfire curve number estimates for the southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado, USA

Technical Report ERDC-TR-24-12
By: , and 

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Abstract

The curve number method first developed by the US Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation Service (now the Natural Resources Conservation Service) is often used for post-wildfire runoff assessments. These assessments are critical for land and emergency managers making decisions on life and property risks following a wildfire event. Three approaches (i.e., historical event observations, linear regression model, and regression tree model) were used to help estimate a post-wildfire curve number from watershed and wildfire parameters. For the first method, we used runoff events from 102 burned watersheds in Colorado, southern Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and eastern Utah to quantify changes in curve number values from pre- to post-wildfire conditions. The curve number changes from the measured runoff events vary substantially between positive and negative values. The measured curve number changes were then associated with watershed characteristics (e.g., slope, elevation, northness, and eastness) and land cover type to develop prediction models that provide estimates of post-wildfire curve number changes. Finally, we used a regression tree method to demonstrate that accurate predications can be developed using the measured curve number changes from our study domain. These models can be used for future post-wildfire assessments within the region.

Suggested Citation

Giovando, J., Reis, W., Shillito, R., Shaloka, E., Chow, C., Kohn, M.S., Memarsadeghi, N., 2024, Post-wildfire curve number estimates for the southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado, USA: Technical Report ERDC-TR-24-12, ix, 84 p., https://doi.org/10.21079/11681/48652.

Study Area

Publication type Report
Publication Subtype Federal Government Series
Title Post-wildfire curve number estimates for the southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado, USA
Series title Technical Report
Series number ERDC-TR-24-12
DOI 10.21079/11681/48652
Publication Date June 10, 2024
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
Contributing office(s) Colorado Water Science Center
Description ix, 84 p.
Country United States
State Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
Other Geospatial southern Rocky Mountains
Additional publication details