Multistage time-to-event models improve survival inference by partitioning mortality processes of tracked organisms

Scientific Reports
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Abstract

Advances in tagging technologies are expanding opportunities to estimate survival of fish and wildlife populations. Yet, capture and handling effects could impact survival outcomes and bias inference about natural mortality processes. We developed a multistage time-to-event model that can partition the survival process into sequential phases that reflect the tagged animal experience, including handling and release mortality, post-release recovery mortality, and subsequently, natural mortality. We demonstrate performance of multistage survival models through simulation testing and through fish and bird telemetry case studies. Models are implemented in a Bayesian framework and can accommodate left, right, and interval censorship events. Our results indicate that accurate survival estimates can be achieved with reasonable sample sizes (𝑛≈100+) and that multimodel inference can inform hypotheses about the configuration and length of survival stages needed to adequately describe mortality processes for tracked specimens. While we focus on survival estimation for tagged fish and wildlife populations, multistage time-to-event models could be used to understand other phenomena of interest such as migration, reproduction, or disease events across a range of taxa including plants and insects.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Multistage time-to-event models improve survival inference by partitioning mortality processes of tracked organisms
Series title Scientific Reports
DOI 10.1038/s41598-024-64653-w
Volume 14
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher Nature Publications
Contributing office(s) Coop Res Unit Leetown
Description 14628, 11 p.
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